Like many of the adventures of Sherlock Holmes, there is one involving a murder investigation. Holmes and Watson go to visit the site of murder. When they get back to their Baker Street residence, Holmes asks Watson: "Did you notice the dog at the house of murder, Watson?" Watson answers in the affirmative. "Did you notice anything strange in its behavior?" asks Holmes further. Watson replies: "Nothing strange. It was lying in a corner silently." Holmes thumps the table at it: "That is exactly what I mean. There is a murder in the house, and the dog is not making a lot of ruckus, which it should be doing under normal circumstances." And he goes on to suggest that the landlord of the house is the suspect (and that is why the dog takes it to be business as usual); it turns out in the end that the landlord is indeed the culprit.
Sorry to have taken such a long time to come to the point - There is nothing about Mr Y S Jaganmohan Reddy in the Principal Opposition Paper (POP) or on the popular television channels today. What is wrong with that, you might wonder. According to these papers and channels, and according to their sources, action would be taken against Jagan in the first week of September - we are well nigh the end of the first week, and no such thing is coming forth. Except for causing the death of a couple of more 'fans', the Odarpu hasn't achieved anything so far.
I speculated earlier that criminal proceeding would be taken against those involved in mining and other irregularities. The APIIC boss today said in so many words that those responsible for the 'Emmar kumbhakonam' will not be spared and even criminal action will be initiated as per the report of the investigation committee. Mr Ambati can start looking for a good trial lawyer, and be mentally prepared to eat chippa koodu.
You heard it before - I mean, read it before - in this column that no action will be taken against Jagan, in terms of expelling him from the party. If his fingerprints are found on any of these scams, the action will be criminal cases and not some shim-sham show-cause notice. Even now his camp followers are in the illusion that the Congress high command does not dare take action against them or their leader. The fact is that the high command does not care to take action. They say that digging into the irregularities of the past regime is 'harassment': well they are behaving like the thief who groped his shoulder when someone asked "who is the pumpkin thief". Already a petition in the high court filed by someone not related to the scam was dismissed, and he was roundly asked - why are you interested in this case?
There was some talk of the Gali brothers coming to bail Jagan out: it was rumored that they would even buy out MPs at the center and topple the Congress government. The Nehru-Gandhi dynasty is the biggest shindig when it comes to horse-trading, as we have seen in the case of the nuke deal with America and how the UPA sarkar got the bill through. Nobody can buy out Congress MPs: there is plenty of money with the Congress and there is the 'abhaya hastam' of the high command. And then there is the brand equity of the very name Gandhi. (Unfortunately, Maneka Gandhi and Feroze Varun could not get any dividends out of their illustrious surnames.)
What is going to happen in the near term?
A Telangana leader will be named CM - possibly Dr J Geetha Reddy. The Srikrishna commission report will be referred to a joint parliamentary committee. Negotiations will be opened with the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) on the modalities of state formation. It will be made known that Telangana is going to be created. Even a time-frame for the creation of T-state may be announced. This could pave the way for a TRS-Congress tie-up in the future elections (failing which the TRS would jump into bed with the BJP). However, that is in the long term.
So what do we have in store in the long term?
I have been keeping my political comments to Andhra Pradesh, because I really don't have a grasp of politics at the national level. But I will venture a few big picture speculations today. The Congress could romp home to victory in the parliamentary elections in 2014, in alliance with TRS in Telangana; and with the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) in the rest of Andhra. It should do well in Karnataka, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Orissa, and overall maintain an edge over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). They just need to rein in the likes of Mr P Chidambaram, who are helping the saffron cause, as did Mr P V Narasimharao in the 1990s.
The BJP is good as an opposition party: it is right of center in economics, which is good for the country. It will retain its stature as the main opposition party and leave the left parties behind. Leftist economics are really outdated. It will be a much more diminished left presence in the next Loksabha.
Jagan will go back to Bangalore and get into some call center job (or real estate dhanda). I mean, he will go to the boondocks.
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