will naidu bail out the congress?

Will Chandrababu Naidu Bail Out Congress Party?

An interesting theory doing the rounds in Hyderabad is that if Mr Y S Jaganmohan Reddy pulls the carpet from under Mr K Rosaiah’s feet, the Telugu Desam Party of Mr N Chandrababu Naidu may support the Congress party and bail them out of a difficult situation. This is what the Congress has done time and again in many states and at the center (for example, the Charan Singh ministry in 1979). Mr N Bhaskara Rao has been propped up by the Congress in 1984, although Mr N T Ramarao valiantly fought a political battle to regain the reigns of power. In a lighter vein, Chandrababu seemed to have smiled at the suggestion that if Jagan pulls the plug, maybe TDP should chip in with their support to K Rosaiah.

But there is a big IF. If Jagan manages to get the support of about 40 MLAs; let us take that for granted. Let us also imagine that the MLAs sympathetic to Jagan sign petition stating that they don’t have confidence in the government: this may prompt the governor to call upon the CM to prove his strength on the floor of the assembly. This is a possibility; let us take that for granted and proceed further. The Congress cannot tide over the situation with the help of the Praja Rajyam Party and its 18 MLAs. Naidu can play king maker in that context. Why would he want to do that?
Firstly, many of his legislators are averse to a mid-term poll; they haven’t paid off the huge debts they incurred in getting elected in 2009, and they will be hard-pressed for cash flows for another election so soon. So there may be pressure on him from his party colleagues. But he can brush them aside. He is known to be a man courage of conviction and he can rule with an iron hand. (Ironically, he will be allowing the ‘hand’ to rule the state for another 4 years, if he supports the Congress party.) In a 4-cornered contest among the Congress, the TDP, PRP, and Jagan’s Congress, with Congress harvesting their minimum 30% votes, it will be an uphill task for the TDP folk, and for Naidu. Congress will laugh its way to the next term in AP and Telangana (yes, it is going to be two states after the next election).

Be that as it may, he claimed that he has Congress blood in him; in fact, except for the left parties and the BJP, most politicians have been Congressmen at one stage or the other. Naidu is politically shrewd, although not much of a crowd-puller. He was the one ‘behind the wheel’ during NTR’s regime. The fact that he was once a Congressman surely facilitates the way for a kind of home-coming, with a sort of power-sharing with the Congress (a senior cabinet rank for him and Congress CMs for Andhra and Telengana). Now that is another consideration: the T-issue.

TDP is opposed to a separate Telangana broadly, although some leaders of the party from the Telangana region are agitating for a separate state. Naidu himself is none too keen on that. In case the state goes to polls, Congress will take a final decision on T-issue, and make definitive moves to settle that (to separate the state.) In that case, TDP can forget about winning a seat in Telangana. Indeed, it would pay them dividends in the coastal Andhra and rayala seema regions if they face the elections with a Samaikyandhra slogan. That would drive the Telangana leaders out of the party fold – but that is another story, another day. In fact, if Naidu props up the Rosaiah government, the issue will be postponed for another 4 years, because the Congress is in no hurry to settle it until the next election – whether regular or mid-term. That would give Naidu some time to work out his stance vis-à-vis the T-issue.

The main reason Naidu would want to go with the Congress is that he is being threatened from within the party by the late NTR’s heirs. Balakrishna can dent Naidu’s credibility as NTR’s political heir; the family can any day turn the tables on Naidu and accuse him of causing NTR’s death by his act of perfidy. Balakrishna himself doesn’t have much of a following but he can cut into what little Naidu has. Naidu is also facing headache from Harikrishna.

As we said in an earlier article, it may be curtains for the Telugu Desam Party in the coming years. Neither Harikrishna nor Balakrishna can do anything on their own. Now let us face it, Naidu, without the organization mechanism backing him, is a political non-entity. He is not a good public speaker, nor is he known for his probity in public life. TDP, which was synonymous with NTR, and later piggy-backed on the BJP for a time, is now almost finished.

Bottomline: All things considered, Naidu better do some serious thinking about joining hands with the ‘hand’ that fed him earlier. It is not a matter to be laughed off or smiled at.